Archives for January 2019

Each year at this time we publish national business outlooks from our members.  This is the first of two European summaries. Links to the individual country outlooks are at the end”

Most of Europe has the jitters.  Since this time last year, the rock and the hard place have become up front and ugly – Brexit over here and Trump-vs-Jinping over there.  Neither a cause for celebration if you are a business or political leader in the middle.

Of the 12 business outlook reports from our members in Western Europe it’s hard to qualify any as optimistic.  It seems everyone is either heading into a train wreck (today’s name for Brexit) or shaking one off (see Spain and the Catalans).  We will also be looking at another 10 outlooks from Eastern Europe.

Let’s start with the UK, where the “mother of Parliaments” has been rebranded by the Economist as the “mother of all messes”. Deceitful campaigning and political incompetence threaten to leave this former world leader in a shambles.  As our member in London points out, economic considerations have been drowned out in the noise but, he says, they may not be quite as bad as it looks.

However, fall-out from the Brexit mess is widespread.  Take Belgium. Modest GDP growth of 1.5% is seen for 2019 but who knows?  According to Deloitte, Brexit could be a killer here.  Exports to the UK are 9% of the national total and the country ranks 4^th of 27 EU countries in economic risk arising from Brexit.

Germans are not sleeping any better.  A nation heavily dependent on free trade gets a collective migraine thinking about US auto tariffs and President Trump. It is no reassurance having a coalition government right now where the conservative CDU and the populist SPD can hardly talk to each other.

Austria is also unsettled by Germany’s uncertain future while worrying about its own.  Growth is expected to slip from 2.1% to 1.9% in the second half of 2019. China and US trade policies are a big concern and Austria’s highly developed banking sector is undergoing significant change among the leadership teams.

Growth has been strong in Spain, but the after-shocks of government corruption and the Catalan secession have dampened the outlook. GDP growth of 2.6% is expected to slip to 2.1% for the next couple of years and Banco de Espana has estimated losses from the Catalan crisis at 30 billion euros.

Switzerland?  Even here the skies are grey. The image of a self-dependent, business-friendly country is taking a hit from “a fog of uncertainty” at the global level and rising anti-immigrant sentiments. They are coming off a good year with 2.7% GDP growth but it’s expected to slow down in 2019 and beyond.

The Netherlands is doing well enough for the government to introduce measures to leave more money in the pockets of wage earners. It has also set aside over 90 million Euros as a Brexit-response fund to increase capacity at customs and the product safety authority.

Europe’s two jewels, Italy and Greece, have more than enough to commiserate with each other.

Our member at Cornerstone Roma anticipates growth of maybe 1% and had this to say:

“Italy is suffering an unusual Government coalition that looks quite unstable and is apparently unfit to face key issues such as migrants, terrorism, environment, unemployment.”

Ouch. But a rosy picture compared to that across the Ionian Sea.  Our colleague in Athens tells us that unemployment is still above 20%, taxes and social security swallow 60% of an individual’s income and corporate taxes and levies amount to 81% of profit distribution.

It’s hard to get by just upon a smile.

Unless you are lucky enough to live in Denmark.

The Danes can smile with a strong economy, steady growth and unemployment at a low 3.9%  But, of course, this is 2019 and there are issues. One is a recruiting challenge due to the acute shortage of qualified workers both in Denmark and the EU. And then, of course, there’s always Brexit.

Denmark’s is a very open economy, very dependent on exports primarily within the EU (61%).  The UK takes up 8.1%. About 60,000 jobs are supposed to be affected by a hard Brexit and the IMF expects that Denmark is one of the countries which is affected most when Great Britain leaves EU.

In our next post we’ll look at Eastern Europe where we have a new hurdle – Russian sanctions.

Read more details of each country’s outlook for 2019:

• Austria
• Belgium
• Denmark
• Germany
• Italy
• Poland
• Spain
• Switzerland
• The Netherlands
• United Kingdom

 

ATLANTA, Ga. January 23, 2019 — Diego Cubas, Managing Director & Partner of Cornerstone Lima (Peru) and Director & Partner of Cornerstone Mexico, has been appointed the new Board Chair for Global Marketing at Cornerstone International Group.

“As we continue to develop and expand, it became evident that this role was needed to provide leadership into the growingly complex marketing area,” said Larry Shoemaker, President of Cornerstone International Group.

“Diego’s 12 years of experience as a leader in retained search with Cornerstone in Peru provides him the needed insight that will prove extremely valuable as he guides Cornerstone’s marketing efforts around the globe”

Chris Allan remains as Marketing Director, reporting to Diego.

Cornerstone International Group provides retained executive search and leadership development services.  It has member-owned offices in 35 countries around the world.

 

For Information:

Larry Shoemaker
larry-shoemaker@cornerstone-group.com
voice 770-395-7225
Atlanta, Georgia. USA

Trade tension will remain a key source of uncertainty and, in particular, how the US-China trade dispute will emerge continues to be a major risk factor.  Despite this, the 2019 Asia Pacific outlook remains robust.

Based on the Goldman Sachs real GDP Growth forecast for 2019, the whole Asia region (ex-Japan) will still grow moderately and at a very healthy rate of 6% (2018 was 6.2%.).  Growth forecast for Japan calls for 1.1% in 2019, compared to 1.0 % in 2018.

Business and growth opportunities remain strong across the board in Asia.

The main themes for 2019 in the talent management field in Asia, in our view are as follows

• Asia is still the can-do region, and many experienced Asia Presidents and Business Leaders in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region will be promoted to larger, cross-region or global roles.
• For countries such as China, Japan and Korea, there will be continuous change from the traditional elements of mass production and wealth creation — capital, labor and raw materials – to new opportunities such as eCommerce, Life Science, AI and Technology.
• Large local companies in Asia will become more global and will be hiring more executives capable of being a bridge between headquarters in the East and West.
• The head of HR will become more than the HR Business Partner and will accelerate the competitive capabilities of the current workforce so the whole company becomes more AGILE by learning, unlearning and relearning continuously.

Cornerstone International Group provides business consulting services throughout the region with offices in India, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Australia and five in China.

The fast-changing 2019 Asia Pacific outlook has resulted in growth-conscious CEOs are working with talent acquisition partners such as Cornerstone as trusted advisors to attract executives that are Game Changers to the business.

Get in touch if you have questions about business consulting services in the Asia Pacific Region

Note: At this time of year we publish national and regional outlooks by our members in many of the 34 countries where we do business. This blog post by Chairman Simon Wan summarizes the ongoing globalization in the Asia-Pacific region. 

 

Note: At this time of year we publish national outlooks by our members in many of the 34 countries where we do business. This introductory blog post by Iwona Szybka summarizes the spectacular recent achievements in her native Poland.  A more detailed report will be found here.

• Last September, Poland became the first country from the former Soviet bloc to be promoted from an “advanced emerging” economy to a “developed” one by the Russell Index, run by the Financial Times and Stock Exchange, or FTSE.
• Our economy grew at an unprecedented rate of 5% in 2018 and GDP per capita has grown 150% since 1989, more than any other country in Europe. We have the lowest unemployment ever (4-5%) – the 2^nd lowest rate from 28 countries of the EU,
• The flagship investments in Poland planned in 2019, include Europe’s largest lithium-ion battery factory for electric cars of Korean company LG Chem (a cost of PLN5.8bn (€1.35bn), creating 729 jobs). German automotive corporation Daimler has started building its first Mercedes-Benz factory in Poland, a €500 million new engine production plant
• Poland remains the biggest beneficent of the European Funds till 2022

So, where is the risk then?

There are three challenges in 2019 for Poland:

1. A shortage of labor in the economy. The German market has been open since January 1, 2019 to the Ukraine workforce, and it is estimated that up to 60% of Ukrainians now working in Poland would move to Germany
2. A structural weakening in public finances
3. The parliamentary elections in October 2019. This is going to be a year of increased political tension and possibly destabilization.

Executive search services, at the moment, reflect high demand for key position experts both for market entry companies and mid-sized, local companies undergoing dynamic growth.  This demand might change depending on the economy/politics in 2019.

Last year we supported market entry companies establishing their operations in Poland from the USA, Spain, Russia, Germany, France.

Read our more detailed report on the market in Poland for 2019

Healthcare in China in 2018 made important progress in terms of the registration and approval policy for innovative drugs conducted by authorities in China.

A lag in approving new drugs had become a major roadblock to innovation in the second largest pharmaceutical market in the world. From a list of 415 drugs approved in the US, EU and Japan over the last 10 years, 339 were not approved in China (and are therefore not available).  It is a major issue for the industry and, more important, Chinese patients had to wait 8-9 years on average to get access to new medicines.

The year 2017 was a milestone in terms of awareness and decision making and 2018 was the year concrete implementation was started in order to find a solution.

The administrative part of registration has been reduced to 60 days and an acceleration list of 48 drugs has been designed in order to start to address the drug approval lag.

 

Focus on scientific needs

This means that the National Medical Product Administration (NMPA) now is focused on scientific needs. Innovation is not bogged down in administrative process but has become a debate between scientists under the control of public authorities. There has also been much discussion on Intellectual Property, though so far without a conclusion.

One black spot is still the lack of a solution for transferring data about blood and human samples which is wasting time in most cases and often blocking some projects. But the Administration needs time to make its point with the Ministry of Science which controls this process.

In 2018, the NMPA has also forcefully demonstrated its concern about safety and quality. The recent scandal of Changsheng Bio-Technology falsifying data for a rabies vaccine was punished by a fine of $1.32 billion – the heaviest fine ever. Responsibility is progressing in the eco-system and is welcomed by all players, international and local. A lot of progress is also being made on the side of the ICH (the international regulatory organization) and technical training will enable improvement of numerous practices.

Pilot may be extended

Key for 2019 will be the implementation of the Marketing Authorization Holder (MAH) system. The direction has been confirmed publicly, but some leaders are asking for an extension of the pilot program for one more year and thus it is probable that MAH will not become law before 2020.

Recent changes of leadership at NMPA have been seen by some media as a possible change of direction. I do not think so. New leaders need some time to catch-up, but there is no will to change the overall direction toward innovation. This is an issue no longer driven by international industry, but by local companies. Big domestic players want to transform themselves and local startups are looking for a more supportive environment for innovation.

For our corporate customers in the executive search field, it means that regulatory, medical and scientific leadership positions, that are already under-supplied today, are going to become red-hot with important strategic implications.

It will raise the stakes in terms of talents required to deliver objectives, resulting in a much more complex search process. Talent development becomes even more critical to retain and renew.

Overall, it raises the bar in terms of science. NMPA is gearing to become one the top agencies in the world and companies need to be at par.

(Read more about our Life Science & Healthcare Practice Group)